Sex-Offense Recidivism and Reoffense Rates in Adults

Understanding recidivism rates of sex offenders is important in determining how to devote resources to treatment and management but data appear to be contradictory; the recidivism rate of adult sex offenders has been quoted to be as low as 3% and as high as 88%.  In a survey of the literature originally completed in 2007 and updated in December 2011, I surveyed 46 recidivism studies published since 1980 in an attempt to arrive at an understanding of what the literature says about recidivism over time.  I also surveyed a number of research studies which explored the reporting rates of sex offenses and I discuss the relationship between recidivism and reoffense.  The review probably does not include every recidivism study ever published but it includes all I could locate with reasonable effort and excludes no published study that I found.

The review illustrates that sex crimes are under-reported, that it is difficult to know what the real rate of recidivism is at any given point in time, that recidivism rates underestimate reoffense rates, and that recidivism rates increase over time.  The data appear to show that most adult sex offenders will not reoffend in the short run but do reoffend after a prolonged period of time, at least in the absence of treatment and supervision interventions.  (Whether treatment and supervision can reduce re-offending is addressed in a separate survey).  We believe that it is imperative that sex-offense-specific evaluators consider the known data pertaining to recidivism, reoffense, and treatment effectiveness in  making decisions about which offenders require intensive sex-offense-specific treatment and which do not. 

To see and download the entire survey, click here (Adobe Acrobat).  We are happy to receive comments and feedback about the survey:  Contact Us.

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